The news about Earth’s changing climate can feel very negative, often focusing on "tipping points" — irreversible, damaging changes that may occur once certain climate thresholds are reached. These tipping points, such as the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet or the dieback of the Amazon Rainforest, are expected to occur as we approach a warming of 1.5°C or higher and could lead to catastrophic changes on earth. However, positive climate tipping points, which could lead to a more sustainable and livable future, have also been identified. Research shows that these positive tipping points, such as a threshold in the adoption of electric vehicles or changes in food consumption habits, could rapidly accelerate the transition to a decarbonized economy.

Metaculus is proud to collaborate with their nonprofit partner The Federation of American Scientists to use forecasting to better understand trends, factors, and policies that may influence and encourage zero-emission vehicle adoption. By generating forecasts, conditional predictions, and causal models of the ZEV landscape, the Climate Tipping Points Tournament aims to provide useful information to policymakers.